Tuesday, April 10, 2012

0 comments

Commentary: Planned DBS-Danamon deal puts Temasek in the spotlight again

Vincent Lingga, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Tue, 04/10/2012 9:45 AM
The planned US$7.3 billion acquisition by Singapore DBS Group Holding of publicly listed Bank Danamon should be one more confidence-building step in Indonesia’s long-term economic advance, but equally it could turn into an ugly political controversy.

DBS chief executive officer Piyush Gupta made the business plan fully transparent in line with the best practices of good corporate governance by announcing it at a news conference here last week, but he has unintentionally set off what could be weeks of pointless political debates, whipped up by inordinately nationalistic grandstanding.

The transaction will not lead to any fundamental changes in terms of ownership, as both DBS, Southeast Asia’s largest bank, and Bank Danamon, Indonesia’s sixth-biggest, are by and large controlled by Singapore government investment company Temasek through subsidiaries.

But several narrow-minded and seemingly xenophobic lawmakers have embarked on what could develop into a nasty public-opinion campaign to sabotage the planned transaction by whipping up jingoistic sentiment.

As it happens, Indonesia’s largest banks (state-owned) have long complained about what they see as the regulatory discrimination they face in building operations in Singapore.

Misguided lawmakers and narrow-minded analysts may exploit these grievances as ammunition to strengthen their campaign against Bank Indonesia’s approval of the transaction.

But as both Singapore and Indonesia have a great deal at stake in the business plan, both governments should see to it that the planned takeover runs smoothly according to existing laws and regulations.

Poor handling of the issue could harm both countries.

Since DBS, already the largest in Southeast Asia, will never achieve its goal of being a leading bank in Asia without having strong positions in Indonesia, India and Hong Kong, Singapore’s government is well advised not to allow the local bankers’ complaints to sabotage the merger.

Simply ignoring these grievances could unnecessarily expose the planned DBS acquisition to noisy political posturing and set off weeks or even months of pointless public debates hyped by excessively nationalistic sentiments.

Singapore’s government should pay heed to the lessons learned from the Temasek experiences between 2006 and 2008.

Temasek decided in June 2008 to divest its entire 40.8 percent stake in PT Indosat and sell the asset to Qatar Telecom after suffering more than two years of bashing by politicians and trade unions in state companies as well as messy lawsuits.

On the other hand, however, the Indonesian government would look bad in the eyes of international investors if Bank Indonesia, the central bank, which has yet to approve the DBS-Danamon deal, succumbed to political pressure by delaying indefinitely the approval of the transaction.

As there is no current law in Indonesia against the DBS-Danamon transaction, refusing to ratify the deal could scare off new investors at a time when the country should be benefiting greatly from the investment grade it recently gained after a lapse of 14 years.

Fundamentally, the planned DBS acquisition is simply a normal business transaction.

It is Temasek’s strategy to build synergy between DBS with its extensive experience and expertise in corporate banking such as infrastructure, project and trade financing and sharia banking and Danamon, which has 6 million customers and operates more than 3,000 branches and 3,000 ATMs in Indonesia.

The strategy is certainly linked to the increasingly important role Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, plays in the global economy, and is part of the DBS effort to gear up for the ASEAN Economic Community in 2015.

Indonesia, especially its banking industry, will benefit greatly from the transfer of skills, expertise in risk management and other good governance practices, along with greater access to sources of international finance.

Banks serve as the heart of the economy. 

Strategic investors and owners such as DBS, with good reputations and huge capital resources, will accelerate the operational restructuring of Bank Danamon to provide comprehensive financial services, notably credit — the lifeblood of the economy.

Experiences in other countries such as Thailand, South Korea and even Malaysia, which like Indonesia were hit by the financial crisis in 1997, point to the great benefits derived from the entry of major international banks with strong reputations and vast capital to the development of a sound domestic financial sector.

The issue could be politically sensitive because a bank is not simply a business entity in an ordinary sense, given its fiduciary responsibilities, the multiplicity of transactions it is involved in and its key function within the economy. 

Banks are institutions of trust. That is why the principles for good corporate governance for banks are much more elaborate than those for other commercial entities. 

It is also why not everybody who can put up adequate capital is allowed to have a controlling ownership of a bank.

Those who want to become controlling owners and commissioners of a bank have to pass the fit-and-proper test set by the central bank to assess their technical competence and integrity.

However, what narrow-minded analysts or xenophobic lawmakers may forget is that whoever is the controlling owner of Bank Danamon, it, like every other bank, is still legally obliged to play by the rules made by Bank Indonesia.
Read full post »

Sunday, April 01, 2012

0 comments

The week in review : $25b for artificial stability

Vincent Lingga, The Jakarta Post | Sun, 04/01/2012 12:43 PM
|
The government, with its popularity eroded by corruption scandals, succumbed on Friday to popular outrage against its planned fuel-price increase by raising the amount allotted for fuel and power subsidies this year by almost 35 percent to Rp 225 trillion (US$25 billion).

The political compromise will further weaken the lame duck presidency of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and debilitate the policy-making capability of his government during its remaining 30 months in office.

The development is worrisome. Many more reforms are needed to strengthen the foundations of the nation to sustain high economic growth rates over the long term.

The nation has been gripped by increasingly rowdy political and economic debates and protests over fuel prices over the last three months, some of which turned violent with dozens of police officers and demonstrators injured and state and private property damaged. 

However, this costly exercise in democracy has served to only to strengthen the economy’s addiction to fossil fuels, thereby putting the state’s budget and its fiscal management as a whole at the mercy of highly volatile oil prices, which are entirely beyond our capacity to control.

This political decision will only create artificial stability at the expense of poverty alleviation, infrastructure development and renewable energy research.

The vigorous — yet pointless — debates and political bickering about the fuel-price issue miserably failed to enlighten the general public about the truth: Artificially low fuel prices will eventually lead us to a severe energy crisis through severe supply disruptions.

The issue is much broader than simply plugging the government’s deficit. There is a great concern about our deeper addiction to cheap fossil fuels that damage the environments and make the development of other renewable energy commercially unfeasible. 

We do not understand why the politicians of the opposition parties in the House — the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and the People’s Conscience Party (Hanura) — stubbornly refuse to acknowledge the severity of the nation’s fuel-subsidy problem.

More appalling was the utter shamelessness shown by the leaders of the PDI-P as they provoked their supporters to join street demonstrations over the last three days, fearing that the party would be on the losing side when the House voted on the fuel subsidy. 

It was a crass and pathetic politicking that marked a low for the nation’s developing democracy.

And even more flabbergasting were the number of economists and human right activists who, along with the PDI-P’s leaders, missed the point, alleging the fuel reform measure was only political grandstanding by the President.

The reality could not be more different. Yes, Yudhoyono could have appeased his critics and neutralized opposition by not adjusting the fuel subsidy and allowing the deficit to rise to an unmanageable level at the expense of economic stability.

However, the President’s conscience seemed to have forced him to stake his political legacy on proposing painful reforms for the long-term economic good.

Allowing the government’s deficit to exceed the ceiling of 3 percent of GDP set by law will increase Indonesia’s sovereign risks at a time when the government has been tapping the international bond market to finance the deficit.

Higher sovereign risks will increase the government’s borrowing costs. Worse still, the government might lose the investment-grade rating it only recently regained after a lapse of more than 14 years.

Yudhoyono’s biggest mistake — or rather his perpetual flaw — has been his indecisiveness and acute lack of courage to bite the political bullet, despite his term limits that will see him exit in 2014. He should have raised the fuel price last year, when he still had a strong political mandate and could have avoided bickering with the misguided lawmakers in the House.

The 2011 State Budget Law authorizes the President to adjust fuel prices whenever international oil prices rise by more than 10 percent over the average price assumed in the state budget.

Finance Minister Agus Martowardojo warned the public as early as last May that fuel subsidies had risen at an alarming rate along with the rising international oil price, urging the President to act immediately. 

We simply cannot understand how the government could have been so ignorant as to allow a stipulation written into the 2012 State Budget Law that prohibits the government from raising fuel prices. The President and his economic ministers should have realized the continuing unpredictability and volatility of international oil prices. 

In 2004, then president Megawati Soekarnoputri refused to raise fuel prices, despite steeply rising international prices — apparently in an attempt to gain more votes in that year’s presidential election.

Megawati was humiliatingly defeated by Yudhoyono, who was forced to raise fuel prices in March and again in 2005 to defuse the fiscal time bomb left behind by Megawati.

Yudhoyono, however, has apparently failed to learn from the political turbulence and massive protests he encountered when he raised fuel prices in 2005 and 2008.
Read full post »
 

Copyright © Vincent Lingga - Opinion Column