Bangkok's poorly designed capital control rocks stock markets

Friday, December 22, 2006 Vincent Lingga, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Thailand's imposition of foreign exchange controls that caused a drop of almost 20 percent in local stock prices and systemic, yet smaller falls in other Asian markets Tuesday, is an example of a well-intentioned, but poorly designed and ill-timed policy.

For Thailand to slam controls on its capital account less than three months after the military coup is certainly counterproductive, especially because the military-appointed government has yet to build up its credibility in the market.

The stock market in Bangkok and other Asian exchanges did rally back Wednesday, recouping most of their losses from the previous day, after the Thai government rescinded the capital controls.

However, the Thai attempt to control capital foreign exchange flows will nevertheless resurrect the debate on the merits and drawbacks of controlling short-term capital inflows.

It was strategic, though, for Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and Bank Indonesia Governor Burhanuddin Abdullah to immediately and repeatedly reassure the market on Tuesday and Wednesday of Indonesia's strong commitment to upholding its fully open capital account.

Bank Indonesia has issued several regulations to minimize the risks of currency speculation against the rupiah without compromising its open capital account. In 2005, the central bank moved to limit foreign exchange derivative transactions with foreign counterparts against the rupiah to a maximum of US$1 million and to cap dollar purchases in outright forward transactions and swaps at $1 million.

The central bank also imposed a three-month minimum investment hedging period on foreign exchange transactions. This means that investors with underlying investment in Indonesia must keep their funds in the country for at least three months. Hedging transactions subjected to this new regulation include outright forward transactions, swaps and call and put options.

These moves aim to prevent wild volatility of the rupiah by reducing the speculative element in the currency market, by among other things decreasing the inflow of hot money to the country.

The return in droves of foreign portfolio investors to the Asian financial market after the 1997

financial crisis has raised great concern about market vulnerability to boom and bust cycles. Thai authorities have been apprehensive over the steady appreciation of its currency, the baht, and worried about the threat of currency speculation.

The reasons for fully liberalizing capital flows were partly pragmatic, as technological innovations, such as new financial instruments, made it easier to circumvent capital controls.
In Indonesia in particular, controls on foreign exchange flows could be highly problematic and vulnerable to corruption, due to the inadequate institutional capacity and high level of venality within the government bureaucracy.

Most studies have also concluded that liberalizing foreign exchange flows could stimulate growth by reducing distortions and enhancing access to foreign financing, as Thailand and Indonesia have proven with the bullish sentiments in their capital markets.

An open capital account may improve economic performance over the business cycle by encouraging more prudent domestic macroeconomic and financial policies, as well as improving short-term access to financing.

Policymakers in countries such as Indonesia with an open capital account are forced to adopt prudent policies because investors are free to bring their money elsewhere, whereas policymakers in countries with capital controls can pursue less prudent policies without being afraid of facing sudden massive withdrawals of funds, at least in the short run.

The potential long-run benefits of an open capital account must, however, be weighed against immediate costs: a country's vulnerability to global shocks or to sudden changes in investor sentiment. Capital flows are subject to pronounced cycles that may induce boom and bust cycles in production and investment.

One source of vulnerability is a mismatching of maturities or currencies, which makes recipient countries illiquid. Such a severe liquidity shortage makes a system vulnerable to panics, while policymakers' options are severely restricted, as painfully apparent in Indonesia during the height of its financial crisis in early 1998.

With capital controls, a central bank can set both the interest rate and the exchange rate simultaneously, at the cost of limiting capital inflows that could finance productive activity.
The question is do the benefits of liberalizing outweigh the costs?

As Indonesia's experience since the early 1980s have proven, the benefits seem to far exceed the costs.

Chile tried to control short-term (portfolio) capital inflows in 1991 by imposing an unremunerated reserve requirement (URR), first on foreign borrowing (except trade credit) and later on short-term portfolio inflows (foreign currency deposits in commercial banks and potentially speculative foreign direct investment).

The reserve requirement was raised from 20 percent to 30 percent. A minimum stay requirement for direct and portfolio investment from abroad also was imposed.

But these controls seemed to be less-than effective because investors found ways to circumvent the controls. The problems lie mostly in the difficulties in the design and application of capital controls.

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Capitalizing on the Hong Kong platform

Friday, December 08, 2006, The Jakarta Post

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) invited journalists from Australia, Asia and Europe, including The Jakarta Post's Vincent Lingga, to attend the 7th Hong Kong Forum of business associations from around the world. The meeting discussed the future role of Hong Kong amid the astronomical growth of mainland China's economy, which will probably become the second largest in the world within three to four years. Below are his reports.

Its integration into the global supply chain, its strategic location in the center of Asia and its position as the gateway to the world's fourth largest economy, China, have been and will continue to be the main advantages Hong Kong offers investors.

But the fundamentals that will sustain and even increase Hong Kong's role as the leading trading and financial center in Asia, despite the fantastic growth of China's Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing, are what senior economist Helen Chan calls the Hong Kong brand.

Ms Chan, with the Hong Kong Finance Secretary's Office, describes the key components of the Hong Kong brand: a strong rule of law, good governance, first class infrastructure and a credible financial services regulatory system.

Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) Chairman Peter Woo uses a slightly different term: the Hong Kong Platform.

The recent issuance of the world's largest initial public offering, US$16 billion worth of shares, on the Hong Kong stock exchange is another indicator of Hong Kong's growing global role.

The Hong Kong equity market is the second largest capital market in Asia and the fourth in the world. With a total market capitalization of over $1.5 trillion, it raised $50 billion in the first 10 months of this year alone.

"As of October, 355 mainland Chinese enterprises were listed in Hong Kong, representing one third of the total number of listed companies and 46 percent of the total market capitalization," Financial Secretary Henry Tang told the Hong Kong Forum. In addition, Tang said, Hong Kong also is a leader in asset management, with $580 billion worth of business last year.

Hong Kong's extensive financial and business service cluster is unique in Asia for its breadth, depth, sophistication and mix of international and local firms. This cluster includes private banking, fund management, corporate finance, currency trading, insurance, venture capital finance, direct corporate investment and stock brokerage as well as support services such as legal, accounting, management consulting, executive search, public relations, advertising, communications and information technology support.

"Hong Kong will remain the leading financial and trading center in Asia," says Bramono Dwiedjanto, general manager of the state-owned Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI), which has operated a full branch in Hong Kong since 1962.

Dwiedjanto told The Jakarta Post last week that a number of financial and trading companies had moved their offices to Singapore immediately after the 1997 financial crisis in East Asia. But most of them have returned to Hong Kong due to its advantages.

" I don't think Singapore will ever take over Hong Kong's position," added Dwiedjanto, who worked for two years at the BNI branch in Singapore.

"Our long international business experience and our knowledge of China make us the best partners for foreign companies to do business with or in China, and for mainland Chinese companies to do business with the outside world," said HKTDC Executive Director Fred Lam.
Lam acknowledged that several cities in China have also been developing as major financial and trade centers.

"But it is not a zero-sum game between Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Shanghai or Beijing. They will supplement each other," Lam said.

Hong Kong is thus poised to play a pivotal role in the modernization of the Chinese economy.
There has been lingering concern about the sustainability of China's economic miracle under its one-party authoritarian system.

But almost 30 years after the opening of China's economy to the outside world, and nearly ten years after Hong Kong's reunification with China, their economic integration is proceeding quickly and smoothly. The "one country, two systems" principle has allowed Hong Kong to retain its capitalist economy and its own legal system.

Clusters of industries

Today many manufacturing companies have moved out of Hong Kong in search of lower-cost land and labor, notably to the Pearl River Delta region in southern China. Still, many industries remain active in Hong Kong, operating their local offices as trading companies and business headquarters that support offshore production.

They mastermind and control the production process from their headquarters in Hong Kong, making the most of location advantages and division of labor.

The relocation of Hong Kong's industry should thus be viewed as an expansion of Hong Kong's industrial sector, according to a 2005 study by Sung Yun Wing and Chou Win Lin of the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

Hong Kong is also a favorite base for the Asian regional headquarters and offices of foreign companies.

" As of October, there were almost 4,000 regional headquarters or offices of foreign companies operating in Hong Kong," said Mark Michelson, an associate director of InvestHK, Hong Kong's investment promotion body.

Superb logistics

Hong Kong manufacturers and exporters have increasingly played the role of integrators, matching demand from North America or Europe with sources of supply throughout Asia and beyond.

Hong Kong can fill this need because it is home to a number of dynamic clusters of interrelated industries that draw on common skill bases and can reinforce each other's competitive positions.
This role was described by Michael J. Enright, Edith E. Scott and Ka-mun Chang in their book,

The Greater Pearl River Delta and the Rise of China. A Hong Kong company might help a garment company in the United States design its autumn collection, for example, and then organize purchasing, manufacturing and logistics to get the product onto retail shelves on time, meeting quality and budget specifications.

Hong Kong's infrastructure and real estate development cluster links property and construction groups with engineers, architects, surveyors and interior designers. Its seaport is among the world's busiest and most efficient container ports.

Hong Kong also offers legal expertise in the area of air and maritime regulations and dispute resolution, as well as finance and insurance for air and sea cargo.

Pearl River Delta

One of the regions that has benefited from Hong Kong's position as a financial and trade center is the Pearl River Delta (PRD), one of the most economically dynamic regions on the Chinese mainland.

PRD has developed into a manufacturing center of global importance and one of the world's fastest growing economic regions, thanks largely to the role of Hong Kong as an international financial and supply chain management center.

PRD, Hong Kong and Macao are now known as the Greater Pearl River Delta economic zone.
While Hong Kong, with a population of only seven million, has developed as a leading center for management, coordination, finance, information and business services, PRD, with a population of more than 60 million, has emerged as a manufacturing powerhouse.

"Greater Pearl River Delta, with a $410 billion gross domestic product last year, accounted for one-fifth of China's $2.2 trillion economy," said economist Chan.

The attractiveness of mainland China, especially its southern region, has shifted investor interest from Southeast Asia to Northeast Asia. Hong Kong has gained a bigger share of these investments, at the expense of Singapore, thanks to its infrastructure, clear and transparent rules and regulations, international access and proximity to large markets.

Since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, major international financial service companies have increasingly concentrated their regional activities in Hong Kong.

The emergence of the PRD region has allowed Hong Kong companies to decentralize many activities from Hong Kong into the surrounding areas. PRD thus accounted for the bulk of Hong Kong-mainland China trade, which totaled $265 billion last year.

Hong Kong has cumulatively invested more than $260 billion in the mainland, mostly in manufacturing plants in the PRD region.

"Some 75 percent of the estimated 80,000 factories established in the PRD region since the late 1970s have been owned by Hong Kong companies," said Michelson.

Future role

In this changing environment, Hong Kong firms may move further up the value chain, upgrading their services and assuming more front- and back-end roles, such as contributing to product design and development.

China's participation in the World Trade Organization and the development of industries in the Pearl River Delta region will provide a greater scope for high-value activities linking these industries through Hong Kong to the rest of the world.

These developments will also provide additional opportunities for foreign investment and the location of management activities for a wider range of multinational companies in Hong Kong. Hence, Hong Kong is positioned to perform high value-added managerial, financial, coordination and information activities across more industries.

"High-technology, research and development activities should be the next dimension of our economy to make Hong Kong not only the trade and financial but also the technology center in Asia," HKTDC Chairman Peter Woo said at the Hong Kong Forum last week.

Hong Kong's economy will likely grow to look more like those of other major cities in developed countries such as Tokyo, New York and London. These global centers thrive on handling flows of knowledge, information, goods and finance, acting as the nodes at which economic activities are managed and financed.

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Agricultural revitalization key to cutting poverty

Monday, December 11, 2006 Vincent Lingga, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The findings of the latest World Bank study to the effect that almost 70 percent of the poor in Indonesia live in rural areas and 64 percent work in agriculture boil down to a central message: the fight against poverty should be waged mainly on the rural front.

This does not, however, mean that the focus should be entirely on agriculture as rural non-farm economic activities (micro and small enterprises) also play an increasingly important role as sources of livelihood for villagers.

Although agriculture's contribution to national gross domestic product has declined to less than 20 percent, its direct and indirect contributions to the national economy remain significant through its forward and backward production, distribution and consumption linkages.
Put another way, the agricultural growth multiplier quantifies the impact of an increase in income in the agricultural sector on income growth in other sectors.

However, despite the vital role of agriculture in poverty alleviation, it is quite difficult to see how the Agricultural Revitalization Program of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, launched in July 2005, connects with the new poverty reduction strategy -- the Community Empowerment Program -- that Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare Aburizal Bakrie described at a national poverty conference here last week.

Disappointingly, not a single minister, not even the agriculture minister, has elaborated on the agriculture-revitalization concept after its introduction by Aburizal Bakrie, the then coordinating minister for the economy, almost 18 months ago.

The World Bank report Making the new Indonesia work for the Poor, which was launched last week, reemphasized the vital need for higher productivity in the agriculture sector and rural non-farm small enterprises.

The report endorses the conclusions of similar studies by other domestic and foreign institutions, which have concluded that farmers' incomes can no longer be improved significantly by focusing on such staple crops as rice, cassava, soybean, sugar and corn as such crops will do little to provide additional employment and income growth due to diminishing productivity gains, especially in Java, where most farmers till less than half a hectare.

The problem, though, is that shifting to higher value agricultural activities, such as forestry and horticulture requires high-yield seeds, agriculture extension services, better infrastructure (such as rural roads), up-to-date information flows, market facilities and electricity.
Rural infrastructure is quite vital as in both agriculture and the rural non-farm economy, opportunities for growth can be generated by greater linkages with the urban economy and export markets.

Future agricultural growth will depend largely on urban and international demand for high value agricultural produce. In other words, smooth transportation is vital to facilitating linkages with the farm economy and stimulating the development of rural small enterprises.

The sad reality, however, is that farmers' access to basic services and markets has sharply deteriorated as the result of an acute lack of maintenance of the rural road network since 1998. Likewise, the scope and extent of agriculture extension services has declined since decentralization.

No wonder, agricultural total factor productivity has declined steadily since 1993, according to the World Bank report.

Regional administrations, which under local autonomy play a key role in the provision of both basic services and rural infrastructure, often do not understand the nature and importance of linkages between agriculture and the non-farm economy.

There is nothing wrong with the Community Empowerment Program concept. It will be more effective as it promotes the empowerment and involvement of poor people in conceiving programs, as well as transparent budgeting rules, processes and procedures, good-governance practices and increased accountability.

The program, however, will be less effective in alleviating poverty if it is not supported by strong and competent institutions, and an enabling environment for the revitalization of agriculture and the development of agribusiness in its broadest sense. Yet more challenging is that fact that the responsibility for creating such an enabling climate rests squarely with local government.

The message that one can really draw from the main recommendations of the World Bank study is that poverty alleviation should incorporate the broad objective of empowering farmers (improving their incomes) and the rural community through the development of the farm and non-farm economy, the improvement of rural infrastructure and the provision of basic services.

The revitalization of the agricultural sector will require tight ministerial coordination and cooperation with local administrations in mobilizing resources for the development of such basic infrastructure as roads, markets, processing facilities, rural financial institutions, farm research stations designed to meet area-specific conditions, and technical farm extension services.

The agriculture extension service should be decentralized and be complemented by a conducive business environment to stimulate private investment in the propagation of high-yield seeds for high value crops.

The questions now are twofold: how will the revitalization of the agriculture sector be integrated into the Community Empowerment Program, and which minister will be responsible for coordinating the government functions in all of the multidimensional activities involved in the Community Empowerment Program? Will it be the coordinating minister for people's welfare, Aburizal Bakrie, or the chief economics minister, Boediono?

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